All-In - Show Notes - June 15, 2024

Show opened with Tim, the gambler

Trump Fundraiser Recap
Sacks: Organized the presidential fundraiser for Trump. A whole different level of planning coordinating with Security Service and team. There were no anti-Trump protestors and tons of Trump supporters out on the streets in SF. A huge number of first-time Trump donors came out. Trump is extremely charming and entertaining, has an ability to instantly connect with people. Very sharp, very funny, very high-energy.
Chamath: There is a huge gap between how the media portrays Trump and how he actually is. He's sharp, funny, and kind in a disarming way. Chamath feels he has misjudged him for years. Trump is low-regulation, low-tax, and pro-progress.
Jason: Trump has flipped his position on EVs, crypto, and more.
Friedberg: 548 shows Biden winning at 51% and Trump at 48%
Jason: Predicts a swap by the Democrats, that they'll run Kamala or Gavin Newsom
Chamath: This is actually Trump vs Kamala Harris.

Elon's Comp Package Approved - he's to be $56 billion and moving the company from Delaware to Texas. TSLA up 6% on the news.
Chamath: It's crazy that we're even here. The supermajority of shareholders approved it and the judge denied anyway. Elon deserves this, hopefully the judge makes the right decision on this one.
Sacks: The winning margin is 73%, the same amount as in 2018. Elon delivered what he promised, now the shareholders owe him. This weakens the reputation of Delaware as a business-friendly state. Companies are going to flee.
Friedberg: This is a good example for capitalism. Incentives like this are a great idea and other companies should pay attention. We'd see a lot more risk and innovation if we moved toward this type of model more broadly. As is it, too many CEOs get paid a fixed amount without needing to perform or take risk.
Sacks: This whole thing was a heist. Lawyers were trying to get a multi-billion payout from Elon. Hopefully they get nothing out of this. Delaware will be done as a business state.

Apple released Apple intelligence and a partnership with OpenAI.
Jason: Apple really impressed everyone with their AI capabilities and everyone agreed, the stock is up 10%. It's got Grammarly-like features, smart replies, and OpenAi will be built into Siri. Apple now has a lead on the AI consumer market.
Chamath: What's striking about this is that they've shifted from major hardware releases to software releases a few months down the road. He's not impressed.
Friedberg: What apple has shown is a glimpse into the future of software where the hardware and software are more of tighter coupling than before. Hardware developers are going to move toward software creators. Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, are doing this. This is an interesting shift.
Sacks: The market thinks that Apple is doing the right think and they are doing exactly what Sacks said they should. However, the partnership with OpenAI might be a mistake. Apple has always controlled the entire chain from the device to the App Store so this is a giant change and maybe a mistake. Opening themselves to OpenAI could be a giant privacy and security mistake.

OpenAI has hit a run rate of $3.4B dollars, roughly doubling their business is the last 6 months or so.
Sacks: Everyone acknowledges that OpenAI makes great products despite the soap opera that is the company leadership. The B2C and B2B businesses are very different, we need to separate them out. ChatGPT is the only model worth paying $20/mn for. But, the other LLMs are catching up. B2B is a much better business - lower churn, higher ticket, expanding. If OpenAI is mostly B2C, that's much less valuable than if it's B2B.
Chamath: AI has not created experiences that justify the expenses. We are still in a hype phase. It's amazing how quickly this company has created this large of a business.
Friedberg: OpenAI might be AOL. It's big now but will get crushed later by OpenAI. Why pay for ChatGPT when you could be using LLAMA? The future is companies building their own LLMs based off their own data. Friedberg uses ChatGPT to do work that would have cost thousands of dollars in analysts and consultants. What it can't do yet is use internal data and analyze it.
Jason: This is going to drive work efficiency through the roof. Productivity is going up and fast.

Inflation is down, market is ripping, productivity is up, employment at record low, wages are rising, but consumer and national debt is also going up.
Friedberg: 3 Numbers that matter: inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and cost to borrow. Economy is only growing by 1.3% and inflation is 3% which means we're all getting poorer slower. At some point, we cannot make our payments. We are in stagflation despite the good numbers Jason read off.
Chamath: GDP is 70% spending by consumers. We have finally burned through the totality of individuals savings at the same time that companies are shrinking. Unemployment is rising. Cash is running out and an economic slowdown is coming.
Sacks: Inflation is still sticky. Powell isn't forecasting any rate cuts this year. The markets are mixed despite a few being up. The rate cut hype cycle is over. AI stocks are holding up the entire market.
Friedberg: What is Powell's motivation?
Chamath: Powell over promised, under delivered. Now he is doing the opposite.
Sacks: His main incentive now is his legacy, to be remembered like Volger, who crushed inflation. Not concerned with re-appointment. His incentive now is to make sure he's not wrong about inflation being sticky and keeping rates higher longer.