All In - Show Notes - May 10, 2024

Sam Altman is a guest on the episode today.

Sam Altman is the former president of Y Combinator and CEO of OpenAI.

When is GPT5 coming out?
Sam: We take our time, it won't come out until it's ready. GPT 4 has gotten better even since it was released. These models continually get better and this is the future, a constant improvement. You may just continue to keep training models.

GPT4 currently only available to paid users but the goal is to balance a certain amount of tools available for free so everyone can use them.

Chamath: We are seeing really impressive tools like Devin roll only to see, a few weeks later, comparable tools roll out in Open source.

Sam: We are still very, very early in the development of these tools and understanding how intelligence works.

There is a place for open source and closed source. We've open sourced some things and closed source other things. Sam wants an open source model that runs well on his phone.

What about LLama 3 on a phone?
It's good but not good enough for what he's thinking about.

How do you stay ahead of open source tools?
We can't.

The AI industry is rate limited by Nvidia's hardware. How are working to overcome that?
Sam: We are improving the efficiency of the algorithms at the same time that the hardware is improving. When there is this much value to unlock, the world and market will figure out how to make it.

The iPhone is the greatest piece of technology mankind has come up with.

If you could make a cheaper device than a phone, that wouldn't be enough to replace the phone. There needs to be some new interaction paradigm that we haven't invented yet. Voice interactions for ChatGPT seems like it may be the next big thing.

What apps would be possible if AI was on phones?
Always-on, low friction assistant to help with everything, working to make us better and more efficient.

There are two schools of thought with what we hope the future of AI will be:
1: I want something that is like an extension of me, it thinks like me, it knows me, it is me
2: A senior employee. A separate entity that is smart, capable, proactive, etc.

What does it mean to regulate AI?
I'm concerned about California's new regulations. There is a wide spectrum of what people mean when they say that AI needs to be regulated. There will come a time when AI systems could cause harm to people so it may be beneficial to set up some sort of international body to oversee AI. We should be worried about regulatory overreach.

Friedberg: It seems like politicians are acting out of fear and have no idea what is going on. Anything written now will be totally out of date and look silly in 12 months.

Post-interview Recap:
Chamath: OpenAI is going to be one of the 4 major companies in AI. The model itself will be closed source but lots of open source projects will be built on top of it. Everyone is distracted by LLMs but ignoring all the other interesting happening in AI.

Jason booked Elon Musk and Mark Cuban for the All In Summit.

What is going on with college protests?
Sacks: They aren't threatening anyone or hurting anyone. They have a right to assemble, they weren't hurting anyone or vandalizing anything so it shouldn't have been shut down. This is the woke Right, shutting down speech that is against their beliefs.

New Apple iPad ad. What do you think?
Friedberg: It made me sad.
Sacks: There's nothing left but to make the devices thinner. This ad seemed very off-brand for them. Why would they destroy all these creator tools?
Chamath: Warren Buffett sold Apple shares recently. Apple doesn't have a track record of big M&A and they are running out of innovative products to produce. They should have followed through on the car. It would awesome to have an Apple car.
Friedberg: Where Apple has really created value is in creating new categories. They can't enter an existing category like a video game console or car and hope to compete.
Chamath: Apple's car could succeed because of the reputation and political capital they have. They are the one company with the ability to persuade the population to adopt self driving cars.

What's up with Alpha Fold 3?
It was demonstrated today by Google and it's groundbreaking for health, science, and humanity. Until now, the only way we tell the effects that a drug would have on humans is through years of testing. Now, the software will be able to predict exactly how drugs will effect the human body and it's side effects.

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