SBF Sentenced to 25 years in prison

FTX customers lost 8 billion due to FTX fraud; no possibility of parole

Sacks: SBF turned out to be an actually good investor - he put money in Anthropic (now worth $884M) and Solana. Unlike the Madoff situation, SBF actually made some money but his messiah complex caused him to do shady things.

Friedberg: 100% of the investors and account holders will be made whole according to the FTX trustee.

Jason: They were hopped up on speed and that lead to some of the mania.

Chamath: He talked to SBF on a Zoom call and asked for a model and got sent a five line excel sheet.

Sacks: He saw SBF at a tech conference and met with him. He asked about SBF about a ballot iniative, why was he funding a ballot initiative to raise taxes in California. SBF got very animated and upset defending the initiative.

Trump made $5B with the IPO of DJT, his social media company

Jason: DJT is worth about the same as Reddit ($8.5 billion). DJT is valued about 2000x revenue, Reddit about 10x.

Chamath: This reminds him of 1997 when David Bowie released a Bowie Bond. This might have been the first instance of people monetizing themself. DJT represents a trading card on Donald Trump, an investment in him as a person. We might see the Kardashians do this, Mr. Beast, etc. Buyers will buy this and stock’s like it as a bet on Donald Trump as a brand.

Friedberg: Chamath is right and it’s probably also a vote against traditional Media. This is a way for people to say that they want this new way.

Sacks: This is a reaction against the law fare being waged on Trump. Trump’s enemies are angry and his supporters might buy the stock as a protest vote.

Chamath: We’ve shifted from rational fundamental-based stock investing to speculative activity. These markets are becoming more gamified and less based on actual business performance and principles.

Jason: There is key man risk here too if you’re buying the Trump brand. What happens when he dies? Gets arrested, etc?

Chamath: Branson has created over 20 businesses over $1B each under the Virgin umbrella.

RFK Picks Nicole Shanahan as his running mate

Nicole is 38 and a Bay Area lawyer with experience in the tech sector

Sacks: He likes RFK a lot but isn’t thrilled about the pick for VP. It’s nice to have someone young running but she is so different than RFK on important issues. Concerned that she wants criminal justice reform when it’s already ruining SF and parts of California. Tulsi Gabbard would’ve been an amazing running mate instead of Nicole.

Chamath: Many positive thoughts about RFK but agrees with Sacks that this isn’t the right pick. He is calculating that he could take more votes from the Democratic/liberal audience versus a conservative running mate.

Sacks: We might see Biden fight RFK to prevent him from taking votes from the DNC.

US National Debt rises by $1T every 100 days. Current Biden budget calls for $7.3T to be spent next year.

Friedberg: This is the biggest issue of our time and the ONLY thing that matters. It’s not a Dem or Rep problem, it’s the rampant misuse of funds and that voters keep voting more and more spending into office from both sides.

Chamath: There a few places where the US could save $200-500B per year but it won’t be easy.

Sacks: The best years for tax surplus were during good economic years with relatively low tax rates.

Freidberg: 3 million people directly employed by the US government. Between 12-20% of people pay more than half of their paycheck to the government. So much of our economy is working for the government (heavily taxed citizens) or funded by the government (social security recipients, direct employees of the government, etc)

Sacks: Federal Receipts as percent of GDP has hovered between 15-20% since WWII Regardless of tax rates.

Friedberg: The government is too deeply involved in every aspect of the US economy.

Sacks: Federal spending doesn’t create value. Every category where the federal government has regulated or subsidized has gotten way more expensive.

Cocoa price has skyrocketed this year; 80% is grown in Ghana and other parts of Africa, because of El Niño, a fungus spread in the plants that caused bad yields

Friedberg: Chocolate makers are going to shrink their products, raise prices, etc