All In Episode 166 - Show Notes

Show notes:

• Are we underestimating or overhyping AI?
• Friedberg: we have to see productivity gains in the application layer then meet the demand with enough computing power. Arm’s valuation has doubled in the last few weeks. The Vision Fund bought 90% of Arm - giant win for Masa.
• Chamath: people who don’t understand the market or the tech will critique good investors but time reveals who’s right. Massive credit to Masa for tuning out the crowd and sticking to his convictions.
• Sacks: Masa is a gambler. He needed a big win to make up for his losses and this was it.
• What do you think about Sora?
• Sacks: Incredible. But, the model doesn’t recognize things as objects would means we will need some integration between something like Unreal engine. Currently, it’s simply recreating videos it’s been trained on without understanding 3D objects.
• Friedberg: We will eventually all make our own videos and video games locally rather than having a producer or studio do it. The 3D compute required to train a model to accurately make video isn’t there yet.
• GPT4-Turbo has 128k tokens. Gemini 1.5 has a 1 million token context window. Google has done something architecturally different.
• Context window = the amount of data you can feed into an LLM.
• Chamath: Gemini is interesting marketing but the results aren’t showing that it’s that much better Than other models. Context window does not correlate to quality of output. Meta rolled out a functional unit test AI for testing software. Something like this could have prevented things like the 737 Max failures. There’s another service called Magic.dev that learns from your style of coding and can replicate it. This is going to allow companies to operate way more efficiently with way fewer people.
• Friedberg: Predicts Apple will roll out a Local LLM on the next iPhone chip. Regulating AI is futile and governments should get out of the way of what they don’t understand.
• Chamath: this is going to revolutionize pornography first. No more exploitation of people, under age people, etc. OnlyFans will be a casualty first.
• Jason: MGIE is Apple’s LLM - it’s significantly behind OpenAI and others
• Sacks: This is revolutionary for independent film by bringing cost down to almost zero
• Friedberg: Your entertainment will be generated on the fly for you
• Sacks: People will always want curation and human creativity
• Jason: You’ll be able to go in and watch a story from any perspective you want for example, watch Star Wars from Obi-wans perspective or Darth Vader
• There’s going to be a whole new paradigm of what it means to be a creator just like Instagram and TikTok gave rise to a new type of creator
• Stock Option Loans - Should companies be using them?
• The company loans you the money to pay down the exercise price then you pay the company back at some point in the future. It’s cashless for the company. What started happening is when the company didn’t work out, the employee is on the hook for the loan. These were really common 20 years ago but it’s disastrous for many companies so has fallen out of favor. Looks like a win-win on the surface but it’s actually not In practice. The whole thing creates a lot of tax burden. Plus, it’s complicated.
• Biden’s Age - Majority think he’s too old
• Biden 81 years old. Trump 77 years old.
• Biden neglected a cognitive test in his annual physical.
• The most number of presidents have been in the 50-54 age group
• Presidents not disclosing certain things is fine but not disclosing mental health is unacceptable. This is not what stability looks like for the person who Controls the decision for a country to go to war and use nuclear weapons.
• 59% in a poll say both Biden and Trump are too old to be president.
• Biden didn’t even do a Super Bowl interview, possibly because his aids are afraid he’ll mess up
• Biden confused Egypt and Mexico
• Should a cognitive test be required for president? Friedberg says no, democracy itself is the system that should weed out candidates that aren’t equipped to lead. In this case, voters will not put in office someone unfit.
• Who runs the country in a second Biden term? The staff. It’ll be a regent presidency.
• Will Biden drop out? Sacks: no way. If Democratic Party wanted to make a change, they should have done it a year ago. Chamath: The three people on theballot in 2024 will be Biden, Trump, and RFK
• Tucker-Putin Interview
• Tucker asked 43 questions, mostly softballs
• Jason: Nothing really profound came out of the interview, Putin is a master evader
• Chamath: Eye opening how rooted in history Putin’s views are. Also eye opening that Clinton told Putin he couldn’t join NATO