All-In Podcast 2024 Predictions

Each year the besties make predictions on where the world is heading politically and economically.

Here are my notes on their predictions:

All-in Prediction Pod:

Biggest Political Winner of 2024:

Sacks: Putin
Chamath, Jason, & Friedberg: Third-party candidates - a non-democrat or non-repúblican will rise to be the major contender or candidate (possibly RFK)

Biggest Political Loser of 2024:

Sacks: Ukraine - they’ve lost over 500K soldiers and a huge amount of the population has fled. But also, he predicts the collective West will lose this year along with the loss in Ukraine and pending loss in Israel. The elections in the US and Europe are going to lead to tremendous disruption.
Chamath: Koch brothers - they are usually wrong. Find where old school Republicans are putting their money and short it.
Friedberg: Ukraine - attention is shifting to Middle East. The Ukraine war is becoming more unpopular. US won’t have resources to continue support and Ukraine won’t join NATO.
Jason: Netanyahu - he’s losing favor in Israel, they want him out.

Biggest Business Winner:

Jason: Training data owners: NYT, Reddit, Facebook, Google, etc
Sacks: Anduril - because of it’s Roadrunner product
Chamath: Bootstrapped startups and/or profitable startups - we are underestimating how cheap it’ll be to copy existing businesses in 2024
Friedberg: Commodities businesses - under investment recently in commodities, lots of commodities businesses are going to boom to build back up.

Biggest Business Loser:

Jason: Smartphones - manufacturers are facing a major slowdown as more people upgrade less frequently
Sacks: German economy - loss of cheap Russian gas has killed the industrial output; car industry is massive impacted by cheap cars from China
Friedberg: Vertical SaaS companies - tools to write code, no-code tools, etc are going to destroy vertical SaaS companies
Chamath: Professional Sports - 2024 will be the peak valuation of pro sports

Biggest Business Deal:

Jason: TikTok goes public - but will be under pressure to get CCP off their board
Chamath: Starlink - will go public as a spinoff from SpaceX
Sacks: Whatever the fed does to replace the BTFP (program that saved regional banks)
Friedberg: Rights holder deals for generative AI such as Disney selling licenses to their characters for recreation in AI models

Most Contrarian Belief:

Jason: Apple will make huge gains in generative AI, become a major player in AI
Sacks: Soft landing gets bumpy - market starts to skid but not quite a recession
Chamath: Enterprise value of OpenAI drops
Friedberg: Increased probability of a nuclear weapon used in warfare

Best Performing Asset:

Jason: Consumer comfort services - small luxuries like DoorDash, Uber, AirBnb
Friedberg: Uranium ETF - URA (index on businesses dealing with nuclear power)
Chamath: Public Tech cycle
Sacks: Energy stocks/ETFs - due to the risk of escalation in wars

Worst Performing Asset:

Jason: LLM Startups - they are massively overvalued, too many players
Chamath: Traditional SaaS companies - the cost of engineering has dropped 2-4x with AI making competition easier
Friedberg: Vertical SaaS companies
Sacks: Magnificent 7 - the other 493 companies will catchup this year

Most Anticipated Trend:

Jason: Efficiency in the form of improved AI and outsourcing
Sacks: AI - the exponential pace of AI will continue and we’ll see widestream adoption and mainstream consumer usecases
Chamath: Bitcoin - this the most important year of BTC, ETFs will be approved and ‘cross the chasm’ toward mainstream adoption
Friedberg: Predictive models from AI of pharma, chemical engineering, medical coming out of generative models; reduces costs and spurs innovation

Most Anticipated Media:

Jason: Uranus by Yung Spielberg; Gladiator 2; 3 Body Problem
Chamath: Mr. Beast
Sacks: Gladiator 2; House of the Dragon; The Founders by Jimmy Soni
Friedberg: AI generated news

2024 in One Word:

Sacks: Turbulent
Jason: Exhilarating; optimistic; creative
Chamath: Cautious; pensive
Friedberg: Excited (personally); Cautious (globally)

To listen to or watch the whole thing yourself, you can download the podcast on any podcast app or watch on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID8T71m7Ics

If you’re not familiar with the hosts of All-In, they are Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, David Friedberg, and Chamath Palihapitiya.

All four are Silicon Valley investors and they get together to chat about markets, geopolitics, US politics, and more. The banter among them is top-notch. It’s one of my very favorite podcasts right now.

Do you agree with any of their predictions? What are your predictions?